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manicmav36

NSFL GM

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May 17 2018, 07:20 AM


37thchamber

Please... no money for this abomination.
May 9 2018, 08:02 AM
In order to avoid situations like what occurred with cosbornballboy and Peterson, I suggest that you are not allowed to retire your player after a trade until you have played at least a full season with your new team. If you want to announce you will retire before the season is complete and recreate in the mean-time, that’s fine, but you must finish an entire season.
Mar 12 2018, 09:41 AM
Last season I remember thinking to myself, “We (the Hawks) always seem to get penalized far more than our opponent. The sim hates us.” I assumed it was just conformational bias and probably not true, but I HAD to look into it further. This is what I learned.
I went through the box scores of each game in S5 to find not only the number of penalties, but also the number of yards, and whether there was a difference between home and away teams, as the away team always seemed to get the shaft when it came to penalties. The first table is number of penalties, while the second is number of yards. Black numbers are home games, red numbers are away games. (It's also worth mentioning that I'm very daft and couldn't figure out how to change the axis labels.)
Therefore:
1 = Baltimore
2 = YK
3 = Philly
4 = CO
5 = OC
6 = AZ
7 = LV
8 = SJ




Much to my surprise, most teams were fairly close, but there seemed to be two tiers in the numbers. The top five teams, Colorado, San Jose, OC, Baltimore, and Philly all averaged more than 5.1 penalties a game. Whereas the bottom three, Arizona, Yellowknife, and Las Vegas, all averaged less than 4.6 a game, with Las Vegas averaging only 3.8 penalties per game (30% less than league leading Colorado). Unsurprisingly, the away team does in fact have more penalties called on them per game, with the away team averaging roughly 2 more penalties per game. I also found the difference in home vs away penalties pretty interesting. Two teams, the Liberty and the Hawks averaged nearly 4 more penalties when away, while two teams, Colorado and Yellowknife, averaged less than 1 penalty difference when looking at home vs away. Yellowknife was astonishingly even, averaging only .14 more away penalties per game than home penalties, or only 1 more away penalty over the course of the entire season.




When looking at yardage, unsurprisingly, there is a fairly direct correlation between number of penalties and penalty yards, with a few minor changes. When it come to penalty yards per game, the league average was 38. Three teams, OC, Colorado, and Baltimore were all significantly above that, while Yellowknife and Las Vegas were significantly below. Philadelphia, while still below the average, were only 1 yard off and is by far the closest team to the league average. Although I so badly wanted be able to show a correlation between penalty yards and wins, Orange County and Laz Vegas completely destroy that notion, as OC was the most penalized team yet won the most games, and Las Vegas was the least penalized team, and won the least games. The obvious conclusion would be that there is actually a negative correlation between penalty yards and wins, but the second most/least penalized teams destroy that was well, as Colorado (2nd least wins) was the second most penalized, and Yellowknife (2nd most wins) was the 2nd least penalized. It seems safe to say that there is little to no correlation on penalty yards and wins, at least when looking at season 5.



The average penalty in S5 of the NSFL was roughly 8 yards, with only 2 teams scoring above that, the Baltimore Hawks averaged 8.5 yards per penalty, while the Orange County Otters averaged 8.4. The Philadelphia Liberty were the lowest at 7.4 yards per penalty.



Yet again, the difference between home and away yardage is significant, with the home team averaging roughly 30 yards in penalties, while the away team averages roughly 47 yards per game, making for a 17 yard difference. Two teams in the league were far above that average difference, the Baltimore Hawks had a difference of 26.6 yards (a 9.6 yard difference) and the Philadelphia Liberty at 26.0 yards (a 9.0 yard difference). On the other hand, two teams were far below the 17 yard difference, with San Jose averaging only 8 more penalty yards when away, while the Yellowknife Wraiths have the distinction of being the only team to average more penalty yards as the home team, at roughly 1 more penalty yard per game vs away.



Above is everything I talked about in a handy-dandy ranking table. I know it doesn't mean much without numbers, but it shows general trends like Yellowknife clearly throwing some money towards the refs, or that the league really wants Colorado to fail. If you have any questions or there’s anything that I botched, please feel free to let me know below.
Feb 1 2018, 01:21 PM
When award time rolld around there's always plenty of debate of who should win. This season, there are four exceptional choices for QB of the year. Because I had such a hard time deciding, I'd decided to make a handy-dandy chart.



For the sake of easy viewing, I decided to color-code everything.
Blue = 1st
Green = 2nd
Orange = 3rd
Red = 4th

From a cursory glance, you can see that Akselsen and Boss both rank first the most with four each, Blocksdale ranks second the most with five, and Bronko’s most common finish was fourth, with four of those. However, some of these numbers can be misleading. Akselsen, who had 49 more attempts than the second place Boss, and 98 more attempts than the fourth place Blocksdale, is far more likely to lead in volume stats (completions, attempts, yards, TDs, and INTs, which is obviously negative). On the flip-side, Blocksdale, who has the least number of stats is more likely to finish last in those same statistics. Because of this, I added some new statistics to eliminate a volume bias, and reconfigured others, to level the playing field.




The statistics I will be ranking QBs on are yards per attempt, completion percentage, touchdown percentage (TDs/attempts), interception percentage (INTs/attempts), and QB rating.

As you can see, weighting each category equally, the picture changes significantly. Akselsen, who led in many volume-based statistics now is ranked last in the most categories with three fourth place finishes, and finished in the bottom half of every category except for one. Bronko is a solid third with fourth place finishes in completion percentage and interception percentage. Blocksdale is second with three second place finishes, and Boss is still number one with three first place finishes. A couple interesting caveats, the difference in QB rating for Boss and Blocksdale is 0.1 and interception percentage is 0.05%, both of which I would quantify as a negligible difference. If you were to even those out, Blocksdale inches closer with a score of 10 to 8. However, Boss maintains his ever so slight edge, and with the addition of a second straight Ultimus, earns this season's QB of the Year honors.
Jan 16 2018, 03:07 PM
As a running back, I was always bothered by the incredibly low yards per carry across the league. The league leader in yards per carry last season (with over 100 carries) was only 3.6 YPC, a number that would surely get you benched in the NFL. It has also become increasingly clear that in order to suceed in the NSFL your team must focus on the pass, as run focused teams have historically finished very poorly. Below are some stats that I found pretty eye-opening.


So, first thing’s first, we need our baseline. For the sake of comparison, the easiest baseline is to use the 2017 season of NFL. Depending on who you ask, the NSFL is either a league below, or just outright replaced the NFL in terms of skill level. In actuality, it’s the only real-world comparison we can make with readily available statistics. The major takeaways here are the attempts per game, yards per game, and yards per attempt for both rushing and passing. On average, an NFL team runs 60 offensive plays a game, with 45% being run plays and 55% being pass plays.



Next, we have the same stats, but for the current season of the NSFL. The number of rushing attempts is 11% lower when compared to the NFL, but more shockingly would be the difference in yards per game and yards per attempt. The NSFL averages 30 less yards per game (27% difference) while also averaging .75 less yards per carry (18% difference). While not the biggest difference percentage wise, the yards per carry difference should be the most alarming. At ¾ of a yard less, the changes this causes to the league are significant. A 3.34 YPC average means that if teams want to run for ball movement, any delineation from the average makes getting first down almost impossible. With running being far less effective, teams rely on passing to do most of the heavy lifting with running relegated to mainly a goal-line role, and a way to keep defenses somewhat honest, for most teams. On average, NSFL teams attempt 8 more passes (24% difference) for 95 more yards per game (42% difference). On average, an NSFL team runs 65 plays, with 37% being run plays and 63% being pass plays. This number is worse than it looks as the LEAST balanced offense in the NFL was the Miami Dolphins, who (according to PFF) ran 37.4% run plays and 62.6% pass plays. Essentially, the average NSFL team is MORE UNBALANCED than the LEAST BALANCED offense in the NFL.



Not to pick on the Yeti, but I had to include statistics without them as they are a statistical outlier in nearly every category. Without the Yeti offense in to skew the averages (they’ve run 63.5% and passed 36.5% of the time) the number are absolutely out of control. The number of rushing attempts drops by 3 more to make it a 22% difference and 37 less yards to make it a nearly 34% difference (both when compared to the NFL). However, the yards per carry did improve slightly, to .68 YPC less than the NFL average. The gap in passing attempts widens by another 2 (30% difference) and yards take a jump to 343 yards per game (a MASSIVE 119 yards or 53% increase when compared to the NFL).

Clearly, the unbalanced nature of the offenses in the NSFL is something we should consider addressing in the offseason. A few things really stand out to me, the nearly 20% difference in YP when compared to the NFL is eye-opening. However, this statement, “Essentially, the average NSFL team is MORE UNBALANCED than the LEAST BALANCED offense in the NFL.”, is the most shocking to me. I think the best way would be a slight bump in yards per carry, with a league wide average of 4 YPC seeming to be the sweet spot.

EDIT: I understand that most teams will be pass heavy as this is a player driven league and there are more receivers than running backs. However, as it stands, running is not a viable option for an offense. When a guy like Boss Tweed, who has the 2nd most TPE of any player in the NSFL is averaging 2.9 YPC, there's clearly something wrong.


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