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Football Outsiders: Quarterbacks and Salary (annual article I write)
Joined: 8-July 17
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Local Time: Jul 17 2018, 05:37 PM
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Yesterday at 06:21 pm
Gonna shit these out every in-game week (combining 3 and 4, of course). Gonna go pretty no-frills with it.
From worst to first:
Yards Lost 20
(on pace for worst completion %, most INTs, and worst TANY/A)
Yards Lost 16
(also on pace to break most INTs record)
Borkus Maximus III
Yards Lost 24
(on track for most fumbles)
Yards Lost 26
(also on track for most fumbles, more likely to get there)
Yards Lost 43
(on track for most times sacked)
Yards Lost 6
Yards Lost 11
Yards Lost 0
There you go!
Jul 15 2018, 07:34 AM
Now that preseason is over, I thought it might be fun to look at Tank Commander Logan Noble’s preseason performance a bit more in-depth, and see just how he measures up against the absolute worst. I’ve given some updates about how he might be worse than Pierno, but for this article, I am going to go even further. I am not just going to compare him to the worst overall QB, but to the worst QB in every category. I will make a bold claim and say I am confident Noble breaks at least one record this year, and likely more than that. Here they all are.
Touchdowns, TD %, Yards and Yards Per Attempt
Noble does have a solid receiver in Carter Bush, something all the other record-holders lacked, so he is nowhere close to setting the worst marks in these categories.
Noble has thrown 16 interceptions in just four games. At this rate, he would accumulate 56 interceptions over a 14 game season. That would obliterate the current record of 35 in S3 set by Nicolas Pierno. Now, 7 of Noble’s interceptions came in one fluky game. However, if we remove it entirely, his remaining 3 interception per game pace would *still* beat the record with 7 to spare, so this one I am calling as a certainty.
Expecting to see Pierno again? Well, Pierno (with 0.2286) actually isn’t the worst. Brad Pennington finished S8 with a 0.2258, but someone else holds the record. Yeti QB Ryan Applehort threw 4 TDs against 21 INTs in his rookie season, for a mark of .1904. Guess what, though? Noble is worse. With just 3 TDs against 16 interceptions, Noble comes in just under at .1875.
Applehort was very lucky in avoiding fumbles (and it was luck, as he had 15 hands), and also had 2 rushing touchdowns as well, raising his total TD:TO ratio to 0.2791, a significant improvement. Pierno, the mobile QB, had 0 rushing TDs and 3 fumbles, dropping him slightly to .2192. Unfortunately, it’s Brad Pennington who takes the cake here, with 7 total TDs (all passing) against 31 INTs and 2 fumbles, for a mark of 0.2188. This one kind of delighted me, because Pennington was considerably better than Pierno and Applehort in every other way. As for Noble, he had 0 fumbles and 0 rushing TDs, so he is still at 0.1875, last with some room to spare.
Attempts per Interception
Returning to normality, Nicolas Pierno holds the record here, as his 35 interceptions came on 372 attempts, for 10.63 attempts per interception. While this one is much closer than interception volume, Noble would take this one as well, as he averaged only 10.56 attempts per interception.
Turnovers per Play
Once again, Pierno holds the record here, though I was actually hoping it would be much closer. After all, Pierno had quite a few rushing plays, though nowhere near as many as he should have. It’s worth noting that Pierno was more than TWICE as efficient running the ball as he was throwing it. Despite that, only 8.3% of his plays were designed runs. Accounting for all plays, Pierno turned the ball over ever 12.82 plays. Once again, it is close, and once again, Noble is barely worse, with one turnover every 12.69 plays. And while one game with 7 INTs may unfairly skew that, Noble actually got lucky in one way during preseason, as he had 0 fumbles.
Okay, this one CAN’T be Pierno, right? He had low attempts and was a mobile QB. Well, you’re right. Some of you older folks might be thinking Bercovici or Rove, but they don’t take the cake either. Once again, Ryan Applehort set the bar, with 96 sacks taken (an average of 6.86 per game). Noble, with 29 sacks in 4 games, is on pace to break that record, however, with 101.5.
Sacks, like most volume stats, are pretty unreliable. After all, how often a QB is dropping back greatly affects it. However, Applehort once again holds this one, with 16.6% of his drop backs resulting in a sack. A close 2nd place goes to Bercovici in Season Three, who got sacked on 15.6% of his dropbacks as a third year QB. Noble actually has some room to breath, here, as his sacks are most certainly due to volume, being sacked on only 14.6% of passing plays.
Yards Lost to Sacks
Unsurprisingly, Applehort holds this one with 642 yards lost. Surprisingly, despite Noble being on pace to be sacked more often, he is also only on pace for 637 lost yards, which is vaguely interesting.
Once again, Pierno isn’t the worst, with 48.66% of all passes completed. Bercovici made a decent attempt, with 48.09% (in Season Two), but once again, Ryan Applehort takes the cake here, completing only 47.93%. Noble seems unlikely to really challenge this, but he had one good game against SJS that inflated his numbers significantly, yet still finished at 49.10%
The big bottom line that I put a shit ton of value in. After all of the horrible marks Noble is on pace to break from the worst examples of play in the history of the league, you are probably curious to see if Noble will objectively be the worst QB of all time. I am pretty sure these will surprise you.
Here are all the QBs mentioned in this article and where they fell.
Clifford Rove: 3.60
Josh Bercovici: 2.32 (S2), 3.36 (S3)
Brad Pennington: 2.09
Ryan Applehort: 1.49
Nicolas Pierno: 0.95
Logan Noble: 1.99
Yeah, despite getting sacked at record rates, and missing his receivers far more often than not, and finding defenders with them a hell of a lot more often, Noble will not have the worst average yards per play. The reason for that is Carter Bush. This guys frequently breaks off for huge gains, and averaged 16.6 yards per reception (and 79 yards/game, btw). To put that in perspective, that’s 1.5 YPC more than Hendrix in S3, 3.5 YPC over Howard Miller in S7, and 3.0 over Mayron Jackson in SJS (who was also pretty damn good). Noble is the worst QB in league history, but he won’t have the worst bottom line.
Jul 12 2018, 04:45 PM
Having seen a pretty horrible performance last night, I thought it would be fun to compare it to some of the worst performances by various QBs all through the history of the league. While Pierno accounts for some of the worst performances of all time, I limited it to one game per QB to make it more interesting.
#5: Season 1, Week 1
Mike Boss begins the first QB narrative
Mike Boss is likely to be the only QB to make the Hall of Fame, but not a lot of folks know that his first game ever was one of the worst played by any QB. Of all the performances on this list, it is the only one to have a positive TANY/A, but when you have two of the league’s best receivers dragging CBs for extra yards, that can be very misleading. Boss passed the ball 50 times, yet, despite his great WRs, failed to find the end zone once, despite being at home. On top of that, he threw an impressive 6 interceptions, which was, and still remains, a league record. (Final TANY/A: 0.16)
#4: Season 3, Week 6
HO begins considering OL bots
Clifford Rove had a short career, but was expected to be the greatest prospect ever. He joined the league right after the Season Two draft, so had a full season of earning TPE prior to the draft. The Liberty were the only team that really needed a QB, so they didn’t give up a ton to get him. Naturally, he was expected to struggle his rookie year, but by week 1 he already had more TPE than the guy he replaced. Well, week 6 took him to Arizona, and Arizona took him to the hospital. All but one member of the Outlaws front seven got to him at least once, and the team set a league record with 12 sacks, which they would later break week 14 against Bercovici with 13. That game didn’t make the list, since Berc actually still had a decent game, considering. Fun fact: the league introduced OL bots the next season. Rove, however, appeared a bit punch drunk, throwing 4 interceptions and 0 touchdowns. (Final TANY/A: -1.63)
#3: Season 2, Week 2
Bercovici shows experience/home field advantage guarantee nothing
The first game of Season Two showed the Las Vegas Legion hosting the Baltimore Hawks (eventual NSFC Champions), and beating them in a thrilling overtime game. Berc wasn’t *great,* but he showed he could get it done. After all, he had a season under his belt, as much as any other player. The Legion might not be as bad as it looked. Then the Legion hosted the Yeti. On 44 attempts and 50 drop backs, Bercovici completed only 14 passes for 109 yards. I’ve seen QBs make big mistakes, but I have never seen a QB just look so powerless. And this was a home game against a mediocre team, almost exactly halfway in the power rankings. (Final TANY/A: -1.32)
#2: Season 7, Week 2
“The Savior” corrects expectations
After 4 seasons of Nicolas Pierno, the worst QB in the history of the league, the Yeti finally had a real QB in Ryan Applehort. He’d already spent a year in the DSFL, had built in the style of the most successful QBs in the league, and just seemed to be the answer the team needed. Sure, he’d struggled a little against Yellowknife, but they were the favorite to win it all that year. There was hope. Then the Yeti traveled to Philadelphia. Applehort was held to 110 yards all game…50 of those yards came on the final drive, down by 40 points at the time. At the time he’d been sacked 9 times for 56 yards lost, meaning that he’d gained 4 yards until the final prevent defense showed up. Even then he couldn’t get a touchdown pass, finishing with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. (Final TANY/A: -2.69)
#1: Season Four, Week 7
Pierno has learned NOTHING
Pierno’s rookie season remains, by TANY/A (and every other meaningful metric), the worst performance by any QB. I avoided using any of those games, because Pierno had built to fuck around in the DSFL, and I’d feel wrong laughing at his expense knowing his plans. Hell, I and the 72 agility I gave Fitzpatrick can empathize. By Season 4, though, he’d had a year to develop, fix his build, and would benefit from OL bots, which had just become available. In Week 7, though, as the Yeti hosted the San Jose Sabercats, a team that still had never make the playoffs (and wouldn’t that year either), and Pierno put on a clinic of failure. In only 23 attempts, he threw 4 interceptions. 23 attempts may not sound like a lot, but 15 of them were incomplete due to his 34% completion percentage, the second-worst of all time (the worst was 32% by him the previous year). In addition, despite having the highest speed of any QB in the league, he finished with -1 rushing yards. Horrible on the ground and through the air despite a season of experience, at home against an unimpressive team, Pierno played the second-worst game, by TANY/A, of any QB ever. (Final TANY/A: -2.92)
EDIT: To put Noble's performance in perspective, his TANY/A against Arizona was a -2.07.
Jul 12 2018, 05:08 AM
In a game that no one saw, Logan Noble probably wishes fewer people saw it.
The Philadelphia Liberty hosted the Arizona Outlaws in the first week of preseason, and Logan Noble, taking his first snaps in 4 years, looked every bit as rusty as one would expect. Hoping to knock off as much rust as the could, the Liberty coaching staff put the ball in his hands repeatedly. The results were not pretty.
Noble had 20 completions on 41 attempts for 292 yards. As we’d later see in Week 2, this was not a fluke, as Noble would give his receivers a lot of room to run, and set up many big plays. Unfortunately, this week, the big plays went more against him than for him. He threw just one touchdown, but a league record 7 interceptions. It should be noted that preseason records don’t actually get recorded, so fortunately, this will not immortalize him.
That’s particularly bad news for Jogn Floggity, who came up with 4 of those interceptions, which would also be a league record.
To rub salt in the wound, the Liberty had to watch Kevin Fitzpatrick, who they had the opportunity to draft, absolutely go off, as he threw for 3 touchdowns and ran another in, all while throwing no interceptions.
Noble would go on to improve considerably the following week, but after 2 games, he has already thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 15 times. If he maintains that pace in the actual season, that would result in 70 interceptions and 105 sacks. That is exactly double the current record for interceptions (35 by Pierno in Season 3) and 10 more sacks than the current record (95 for Applehort in S7).
I am predicting a lot of running in Philadelphia.
Jul 7 2018, 05:34 PM
Certainly not the first on this, and certainly won’t be the last, but here are my grades on the S9 NSFL Draft.
Before we begin:
Draft Presentation: A FUCKING PLUS. This was far and away the finest draft stream I have seen in any sim league. I think my favorite part, even though I disagreed with them, were the top 6 remaining players on the bottom. The draft cards were sweet as well, and I will be adding that to my sig. Finally, there was great draft discussion from a combination of NSFL GMs and experts. I absolutely loved it.
Xavier Flash – Possession Wide Receiver. Like many folks, I had thought Bucky Barnes would be #1 overall regardless who had the pick. I’ll talk more about why later. Flash, however, was one of six wide receivers in the draft, though only two (he and Valentine) were really worth a pick. However, given the large number of wide receivers we’ve seen for S10, I think this was a bad choice. Flash was easily the best wide receiver, but he wasn’t the best receiver, and offensive skill positions aren’t as hard to find. If San Jose wasn’t high on Barnes for any reason, they should have shopped a lot harder.
Bucky Barnes – Run Support Safety. A week ago, I might have been a bit lower on this pick. Run Support has been a historically bad archetype. Any player would have been better playing a coverage linebacker. So knowing that he was eventually going to cost a team $4 million or just wouldn’t ever be an elite talent was concerning. However, the recently announced archetype changes makes safeties in general more effective, especially Run Support. The only other player I had viewed as comparable was Declan Harp, who wasn’t as big a need for Arizona.
Marquise Brown – Speed Running Back. This is easily the toughest pick for me to evaluate. Like Barnes, Brown was a teammate, and there was no teammate I spoke to more. This guy is passionate, hardworking, asks for advice. I fully believe the claim that he interviewed very well. However, we are talking about someone 8th overall in TPE, and playing a position shown to not scale very strongly from activity. As with Flash, I think they could have moved down and still had their guy.
Kolby Deringer – Balanced Linebacker. Full disclosure, I didn’t have Deringer on my mock, because the people I copied didn’t have him. I didn’t build my own from scratch, just copied what was out there and rearranged them. That led to two major mistakes in my mock (which was pretty bad), both on this pick. The first was not having Deringer 1st round. The second was mocking Declan Harp here despite having been told after a scouting interview that Harp was not going to San Jose. But you keep moving folks around, and you forget why you had certain players where they were. Okay, now for the actual pick. Deringer joined toward the end of the recruiting wave, so the gap between his TPE and that of the other top prospects is pretty misleading. On a TPE per day basis, he is killing it. Linebacker is a vital position, and I am fairly impressed by the user. I don’t think he was the best player available, but I also don’t think they could have safely traded down, either.
Declan Harp – Possession Tight End. I love this pick. All through the DSFL draft the year before, I hated seeing the Marshals pass on this guy, even though they were already loaded at TE. As you can tell by his 2nd overall TPE, the man is legit. Also, I think possession TE is actually my favorite of the position. I can’t say I am amazed that he fell this far, since Barnes and even Deringer, due to positional scarcity, should have been picked before him, and San Jose, who had half the prior picks, was out of the question. However, I do think he is a great value.
Oskar Ludvig – Man to Man Cornerback. First off, thanks to DeathonReddit for bringing up the TPE scandal and providing proof that Ludvig had too much TPE. For those who weren’t aware, there was no cheating, just poor bookkeeping. However, that small amount of lost TPE means that Ludvig, who has become known as the Norwegian Demon, was actually only 13th in TPE instead of 12th. That’s not a huge difference, but at the time of this pick, Ludvig was only the 3rd-highest defender remaining, behind Thibault and Marchand. I think too much was made of his DSFL success, giving the player credit for just benefitting from an amazing pass rush.
Alexandre Thibault – Center Fielder Safety. I actually really like this pick. This was the best defender remaining. There were 5 players still on the board ahead of him in TPE, but 2 were running backs, 2 were quarterbacks, and 1 wide receiver. There’s nothing amazing about this pick, but for Colorado’s needs, it was the right pick.
Ricky Adams – Power Running Back. After trading down from 6 to 8, I felt pretty confident that Orange County was going to be drafting me, and I was looking forward to it. There was a rumor that Molarpistols would be willing to switch positions if they drafted me, depriving other teams of a franchise QB. It needs to be stated that Lagerfield had slightly more TPE, and would likely be the better bell-cow, but Adams is a lone talent at fullback. If he is actually willing to play that position, this could be a low-key great pick.
Elijah Lagerfield – Speed Running Back. At this point the only realistic options were Lagerfield and Valentine on offense, and Marchand on defense. With the Cats having already picked up a wide receiver with Flash and a linebacker with Deringer, Lagerfield was just the common sense pick at this point. I find it really surprising that that 3 running backs were selected in the top 9, yet I really can’t argue against the pick except maybe a mild preference for Jesse Marchand, who would go on to fall a little further than expected.
Kevin Fitzpatrick – Game Manager Quarterback. As I mentioned earlier, I was expecting to go toward the bottom of the first round, but falling out of the first round due to character concerns has become something of a tradition for me. It’s kind of amazing how often it’s happened. In 4 characters across 3 leagues, I have never been drafted single digits. Obviously, this is a great pick for Arizona. Every GM who talked to me knew I liked Fitzpatrick and wanted to see a game manager succeed. That’s a big drive for me. Also, I am #1 in TPE for the draft class (just hit 300 today), so bias aside, this was a huge steal.
Zapp Brannigan – Balanced Tight End. The Tightest of Ends. Everyone’s favorite in-character player finally gets picked up, and I actually like him here for basically the same reasons I liked Lagerfield just two picks ago. It will be interesting to see if SJS can figure out how to gameplan with an actual TE, as they are not used to that.
Vinny Valentine – Speed Wide Receiver. Flash and Valentine may not have the same archetype, but they have one thing in common: TPE. Somehow, two players at the same position, with the same TPE, were separated by 11 picks. Unbelievable. Unicorn is a former Hawk and all around good guy, so I think this was a great pick, something slm does far too often.
Jesse Marchand – Speed Rusher Linebacker. Somehow, despite all four defenders in the first round going above their TPE rank, sometimes significantly above, Marchand went exactly at his rank. Given the relative value of the position, I think that makes this a great value pick. By the way, this is the 5th Marshal drafted so far.
Gus T.T. Showbiz – Pocket Passer Quarterback. Going to a team with solid wide receiver talent, I have no doubt that Showbiz will live up to his name. This is a solid QB, and I very much look forward to competing against him. Obviously this is a huge steal, but there was nothing other teams could do to prevent it.
Barnaby Earl-Run Stopper Linebacker. Fuck, this team again? Talent is pretty scarce at this point, so I think they made the right pick, but in 5 picks, they managed to draft below value in TPE rank on all 5. I am aware that there are other considerations, but this underwhelming yet logical pick really sums up their draft night pretty well.
LaMarcus Strike – Speed Running Back. Why not? Every other team seemed to grab one. Waiting on a crowded position is pretty much always the way to go, and grabbing an active back to replace Hall of Fame bound Mackworthy was the right pick.
For what it’s worth, I think their pick of Corbett in the 3rd was San jose’s best pick of the night. With Blewitt still going strong, this wasn’t a big need, but I love this guy’s energy and think he’ll be a great player to rally around.
For shits and grins, let’s look at cumulative grades and average grades.
There it is. Feel free to add any questions/comments below.
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