Biggest Sim Nerd in the League
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Local Time: Jul 16 2018, 11:20 AM
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Jun 20 2018, 02:31 PM
Keeping this short and sweet. I went through the playbooks line-by-line to see what each one does for each formation as far as the targets it allocates (take with a grain of salt, not 100% how the playbook uses the numbers it gives) for each position as well as the drop depth of the QB in each playbook.
I'm hoping to expand this and add in RB pass targets as well as running plays and eventually break down blitzes by formation as well.
Here's the data if you want to do your own analysis.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tTw...dit?usp=sharing
As always, questions and such are welcomed.
May 25 2018, 10:32 AM
Rewriting this old post because it has some issues.
These are the key attributes and what they do/how they effect the sim.
Strength - Key attribute for making tackles, breaking tackles, holding blocks and breaking through blocks.
Agility - Key attribute for punt and kick returners. Some effect in coverage and evading pursuit. Not very important if you don't have speed and endurance to go with it.
Arm - QB key Attribute for getting a ball to a receiver. Higher Arm means more completions and longer range.
Intelligence - Small correlation with just about all on-field performance for all positions. Most important for QBs in improving completion rate and reducing interceptions. Helps defensive backs get INTs. Helps reduce penalties for defensive players.
Accuracy - QB accuracy with his throws. Increases completion pct and lowers interception rate.
Tackling - Defensive attribute for bringing down a ball carrier. Not very important if you don't have enough speed to get to the play, or enough strength to take him down.
Speed - The most important stat in the game for most positions. On defense you need to get to the play in order for any other attribute to matter. On offense you don't need stats if they can't catch you.
Hands - Key attribute for making catches, making interceptions. and reducing fumbles.
Pass Blocking - Attribute to make successful pass blocks.
Run Blocking - Attribute to make successful run blocks.
Endurance - A lot more important than you think. For some positions this is the 2nd or 3rd most important attribute. Higher endurance means you can run for longer with the ball before slowing down. It also means you perform better on long drives.
Kick Distance - For kickers this affects FG pct at longer distances. For Punters this affects punt distance.
Kick Accuracy - For kickers this affects FG pct. For Punters this affects killing the ball inside the 20.
May 1 2018, 08:18 AM
With week 9 in the books I thought I'd take some time to write my first media piece in a very long time to discuss the current playoff picture, as we have some races winding down.
For starters let's recall that 2 teams from each conference make it based upon their record. If two teams are tied the conference record is the tiebreaker. If their conference record is also tied the points scored is the third tiebreaker.
In the NSFC we currently have the Wraiths sitting at 9-0 in a comfortable lead over the 7-2 Liberty and 5-4 Hawks. In order for the Wraiths to miss the playoffs they would have to lose out and go 9-5 while the Hawks win out and go 10-4. Or they could tie records at 10-4/9-5 assuming the Wraiths lose a couple of conference games and the Hawks win enough to land that tiebreaker. Odds are that the Wraiths are in.
Next up the Liberty and Hawks are battling for that second playoff spot with the Liberty looking like the favorite here. The Hawks have 2 games against the Wraiths, and one each against Yeti, Outlaws, and Second Line. Meanwhile the Liberty have schedule with Yeti, Second Line, Sabercats, OC, and Yellowknife. A lot hinges on those two games the Hawks have against the Wraiths, which are going to be tough sledding. If they can pull off one win there they have a shot at unseating the Liberty for the second playoff slot. But the NSFC Championship game will likely be held in Yellowknife so whoever wins has arguably the roughest road to the Ultimus.
In the ASFC we seem to have fallen on hard times in what was once the powerhouse conference in prior seasons. Right now we only have Orange County sitting north of .500 and San Jose at 4-5, Arizona and New Orleans at 2-7. For OC to miss the playoffs they would have to lose out while Arizona wins out, giving them the better conference record. Even if NOLA wins out they would have the same conference record as a 7-7 OC and the points for is too strong in OC's favor.
So for the second slot we have San Jose currently the most likely but only 2 games ahead of Arizona or NOLA. With one Philly game and two Otters games left on the schedule for San Jose they have a very difficult schedule left still while Arizona's toughest game left is against the Hawks in their own stadium. I can see Arizona going 5-0 the rest of the season to close out at 7-7 assuming they play hard on the road in San Jose. In this scenario San Jose losing twice to Arizona means they would have to beat OC twice and Philly once to make the playoffs. I'm still saying it's anyone's game for that second playoff spot in the ASFC but I'm going to call it that the Sabercats make it at 7-7.
A quick word on plungers. With 5 games left in the season the Yeti are currently sitting at 0-9 and possibly staring down the grim prospect of going winless for 2 seasons in a row. That would put them at a 30 game losing streak if you go back to their last two games of S5. So can the Yeti grind out a win or two on the final stretch? Of their next 5 games the only ones I'd say they have a shot of winning are playing Arizona and the Second Line on their home turf in Colorado. The homefield advantage gives them a fighting chance. I give it a 50% chance they win one game, 25% they win 2 games, and 25% chance they go winless.