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Football Outsiders: Quarterbacks and Salary (annual article I write)
Joined: 8-July 17
Last Seen: Yesterday at 09:34 pm
Local Time: Jul 22 2018, 04:06 AM
3112 posts (8.2 per day)
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Yesterday at 09:58 am
Here we go!
Yards Lost 103
Yards Lost 87
Yards Lost 87
Yards Lost 105
Yards Lost 62
Yards Lost 114
Yards Lost 113
Yards Lost 41
Noble actually had two decent games, averaging about a 2.5 TANY/A over both, and securing his first touchdown. After those games, he is no longer on pace for the interceptions record. The only record he might set is fewest TD passes in a complete season.
Week 4 wasn't Applehort's worst game, but it might be the worst performance I've seen that didn't involve an interception. Factoring in sacks, he had 57 yards on 34 plays. Those aren't adjusted yards...those are actual yards. I knock him, but bear in mind that 2 of his 4 games were on the road against Baltimore and New Orleans. His schedule is going to get easier.
After week 2, Pennington led the league in TDs, but now he only leads in interceptions. All in all, though, he's playing much better than his TANY/A shows, completing over 60% of his passes. If he can cut interceptions just a little, he'll move up the list considerably.
I was patting myself on the back for my 2.09 TANY/A performance on the road against Baltimore, but then I threw an INT and lost a fumble against Philly. I HAD MORE turnovers AT HOME against PHILLY than ON THE ROAD against BALTIMORE. So yeah...I fell quite a bit. I am on pace to set a rookie record for passing touchdowns, though.
It's both impressive and painful how consistently mediocre Akselsen has been this year, with less than 2.5 TANY/A separating his best and worst games (6.63 difference for Noble). Thus far, he has rushed for 0 TDs, yet is still averaging a higher TANY/A rushing than passing.
Maximus really needed a big game, and he finally got one. His game against Colorado accounted for 1/3 his yards and half his TDs, helping him move up 2 spots.
Despite being significantly into regression, Boss' worst game this year is better than 5 of the 7 other QBs are averaging. Over his last 2 games he threw for 6 TDs and 0 INTs.
Having established perspective, now, Blocksdale's worst game is on par with what Mike Boss has averaged so far. Despite being tied for the 3rd *fewest* plays, he is second in TDs and 3rd in total yards.
Jul 18 2018, 07:51 PM
With NOLA's extension on majesiu, I was happy for both sides. NOLA is a good, fun team, and maj is a fucking franchise player. But, that salary really bothered me. I knew it was cheap, as minimum deals would be expected to be, but wanted to see HOW cheap.
I went through the team budgets for every NSFL team and recorded only the players whose teams paid them MORE than Fyodorovich got paid. Note that I did NOT count DSFL salaries for send downs, only cap hits to the NSFL teams. Additionally, I was very generous, assuming that players used the options if they were too high or played them out if low. Even more, if a player got paid this year over the DSFL cap, I counted that year against the team even though the team gets no value this season. Again, I was extremely conservative.
I found 74 players whose average salaries exceeded the 2.0 million per year received by Fyodorovich. By itself, that means nothing. Maybe all 74 were better?
I then went through every roster page and found their current TPE. For comparison, Fyodorovich is at 521 and is an S7 player.
The average salary was 3.56 million per year for those 74 (178% of his pay). The average TPE was 532.8. This means that the average player getting paid more IS actually better, right? Yes. In fact, 39 of the 74 were better than Fyodorovich. Of course, that means 35 players, or basically 2 starting rosters worth of players, were worse than Maj and getting paid more. Bear in mind, this did not include OL.
However, it gets a LOT worse. Bear in mind that maj hasn't even STARTED his contract, and already he is is outclassing it. Next year will be even worse, as maj will be higher TPE, but 30 of the 39 players currently with more TPE will have regressed by the start of next season, and most won't catch him, either, as the average draft class of those being paid more is S4.7, over two seasons of head start. So he will actually be heavily underpaid in the FIRST year of his contract. Remember, though, that this is a 3 year deal.
I urge the head office to pursue the following goals.
1) Create more tiers for minimum salaries, perhaps a new tier every 100 TPE. The difference between a 200 TPE player and 500 TPE is worth more than 1 million per year.
2) Either add "charges" for multi-year deals, or implement some form of scaling pay. We know a highly active player will break the next tier over 3.5 seasons. Why allow an illegal salary just because it is grandfathered?
Note that neither NOLA nor majesiu have done anything immoral. I would have taken the EXACT same deal in his situation, and if I were a GM, I would have offered him the same yearly values. I only use it as an example because it is a recent signing for minimum with a player on pace to ridiculously exceed its value.
Thanks if you took the time to read this, and note that this isn't something I shat out in media, so please keep comments constructive.
Jul 18 2018, 06:32 PM
Once again, nothing fancy here, just a rolling update and some thoughts at the bottom.
Yards Lost 55
(on pace to beat lowest completion percentage, least TDs)
Yards Lost 38
(not on track for any bad records)
Yards Lost 52
(on pace to break fumbles record)
Yards Lost 37
(on pace to break fumbles record)
Yards Lost 26
(on pace to break fumbles record)
Yards Lost 62
(Might be on track for worst rushing, will have to check that)
Yards Lost 61
(not on pace to break any records)
Yards Lost 17
(on pace to break my spreadsheet)
After a game with 0 interceptions and decent yardage, Noble is no longer on track to set records for interceptions or TANY/A. Can he maintain?
Pennington currently leads the league in TDs, but his interceptions and low yards per completion are holding him back.
Applehort just had a game on the road against the best team in the league. Not gonna say shit.
With 5 turnovers, Maximus III actually leads the league in total turnovers, but is barely shy of a record-setting pace. He's getting vultured on TDs and should bounce back soon. He's leading the league in total plays with 128, though.
Akselsen is really struggling to complete passes this year, not that he is in danger of setting the worst completion percentage. His strength remains in avoiding sacks, just needs more yards, as he is currently 4th (passing and rushing combined).
Fitzpatrick is actually lower than his passer rating would suggest, as he has been sacked 10 times (most in the league). Still, I am not complaining at all.
Boss is performing very well considering his regression, and is second in yards and TDs, not a bad spot to be.
Blocksdale is first in yards despite only being 5th in total plays. This might be an MVP season.
Jul 16 2018, 06:21 PM
Gonna shit these out every in-game week (combining 3 and 4, of course). Gonna go pretty no-frills with it.
From worst to first:
Yards Lost 20
(on pace for worst completion %, most INTs, and worst TANY/A)
Yards Lost 16
(also on pace to break most INTs record)
Borkus Maximus III
Yards Lost 24
(on track for most fumbles)
Yards Lost 26
(also on track for most fumbles, more likely to get there)
Yards Lost 43
(on track for most times sacked)
Yards Lost 6
Yards Lost 11
Yards Lost 0
There you go!
Jul 15 2018, 07:34 AM
Now that preseason is over, I thought it might be fun to look at Tank Commander Logan Noble’s preseason performance a bit more in-depth, and see just how he measures up against the absolute worst. I’ve given some updates about how he might be worse than Pierno, but for this article, I am going to go even further. I am not just going to compare him to the worst overall QB, but to the worst QB in every category. I will make a bold claim and say I am confident Noble breaks at least one record this year, and likely more than that. Here they all are.
Touchdowns, TD %, Yards and Yards Per Attempt
Noble does have a solid receiver in Carter Bush, something all the other record-holders lacked, so he is nowhere close to setting the worst marks in these categories.
Noble has thrown 16 interceptions in just four games. At this rate, he would accumulate 56 interceptions over a 14 game season. That would obliterate the current record of 35 in S3 set by Nicolas Pierno. Now, 7 of Noble’s interceptions came in one fluky game. However, if we remove it entirely, his remaining 3 interception per game pace would *still* beat the record with 7 to spare, so this one I am calling as a certainty.
Expecting to see Pierno again? Well, Pierno (with 0.2286) actually isn’t the worst. Brad Pennington finished S8 with a 0.2258, but someone else holds the record. Yeti QB Ryan Applehort threw 4 TDs against 21 INTs in his rookie season, for a mark of .1904. Guess what, though? Noble is worse. With just 3 TDs against 16 interceptions, Noble comes in just under at .1875.
Applehort was very lucky in avoiding fumbles (and it was luck, as he had 15 hands), and also had 2 rushing touchdowns as well, raising his total TD:TO ratio to 0.2791, a significant improvement. Pierno, the mobile QB, had 0 rushing TDs and 3 fumbles, dropping him slightly to .2192. Unfortunately, it’s Brad Pennington who takes the cake here, with 7 total TDs (all passing) against 31 INTs and 2 fumbles, for a mark of 0.2188. This one kind of delighted me, because Pennington was considerably better than Pierno and Applehort in every other way. As for Noble, he had 0 fumbles and 0 rushing TDs, so he is still at 0.1875, last with some room to spare.
Attempts per Interception
Returning to normality, Nicolas Pierno holds the record here, as his 35 interceptions came on 372 attempts, for 10.63 attempts per interception. While this one is much closer than interception volume, Noble would take this one as well, as he averaged only 10.56 attempts per interception.
Turnovers per Play
Once again, Pierno holds the record here, though I was actually hoping it would be much closer. After all, Pierno had quite a few rushing plays, though nowhere near as many as he should have. It’s worth noting that Pierno was more than TWICE as efficient running the ball as he was throwing it. Despite that, only 8.3% of his plays were designed runs. Accounting for all plays, Pierno turned the ball over ever 12.82 plays. Once again, it is close, and once again, Noble is barely worse, with one turnover every 12.69 plays. And while one game with 7 INTs may unfairly skew that, Noble actually got lucky in one way during preseason, as he had 0 fumbles.
Okay, this one CAN’T be Pierno, right? He had low attempts and was a mobile QB. Well, you’re right. Some of you older folks might be thinking Bercovici or Rove, but they don’t take the cake either. Once again, Ryan Applehort set the bar, with 96 sacks taken (an average of 6.86 per game). Noble, with 29 sacks in 4 games, is on pace to break that record, however, with 101.5.
Sacks, like most volume stats, are pretty unreliable. After all, how often a QB is dropping back greatly affects it. However, Applehort once again holds this one, with 16.6% of his drop backs resulting in a sack. A close 2nd place goes to Bercovici in Season Three, who got sacked on 15.6% of his dropbacks as a third year QB. Noble actually has some room to breath, here, as his sacks are most certainly due to volume, being sacked on only 14.6% of passing plays.
Yards Lost to Sacks
Unsurprisingly, Applehort holds this one with 642 yards lost. Surprisingly, despite Noble being on pace to be sacked more often, he is also only on pace for 637 lost yards, which is vaguely interesting.
Once again, Pierno isn’t the worst, with 48.66% of all passes completed. Bercovici made a decent attempt, with 48.09% (in Season Two), but once again, Ryan Applehort takes the cake here, completing only 47.93%. Noble seems unlikely to really challenge this, but he had one good game against SJS that inflated his numbers significantly, yet still finished at 49.10%
The big bottom line that I put a shit ton of value in. After all of the horrible marks Noble is on pace to break from the worst examples of play in the history of the league, you are probably curious to see if Noble will objectively be the worst QB of all time. I am pretty sure these will surprise you.
Here are all the QBs mentioned in this article and where they fell.
Clifford Rove: 3.60
Josh Bercovici: 2.32 (S2), 3.36 (S3)
Brad Pennington: 2.09
Ryan Applehort: 1.49
Nicolas Pierno: 0.95
Logan Noble: 1.99
Yeah, despite getting sacked at record rates, and missing his receivers far more often than not, and finding defenders with them a hell of a lot more often, Noble will not have the worst average yards per play. The reason for that is Carter Bush. This guys frequently breaks off for huge gains, and averaged 16.6 yards per reception (and 79 yards/game, btw). To put that in perspective, that’s 1.5 YPC more than Hendrix in S3, 3.5 YPC over Howard Miller in S7, and 3.0 over Mayron Jackson in SJS (who was also pretty damn good). Noble is the worst QB in league history, but he won’t have the worst bottom line.
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