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Today at 04:03 pm
Coyotes Looking to Finish Season Strong

KANSAS CITY -- This season has been anything but what the Coyotes hoped. Fresh faces in the team's front office were planning a move to Chicago and were anticipating a strong season to generate excitement in their new market. The team drafted the highly touted quarterback Borkus Maximus first overall in the DSFL draft and seemed to have taken the first step toward a competitive season. Things seemed to fall apart from there. The team's lack of investment in the offensive line has made Maximus' job nearly impossible. Despite uncovering a handful diamonds in the rough in Cordell Joshua, Poopyface Tomatonose, Robby Rainey, and Jack Dwyer, the team lacks the necessary depth to compete at a high level. It seems as though tensions boiled over in recent weeks as players openly criticized the organization and the face behind the Chicago relocation, Co-General Manager Alexandra Jones, resigned from her position. The Coyotes now sit with a 3-7 record and will need a miracle finish over the next four weeks to make the playoffs. There is reason for optimism, however. Newly introduced Co-GM Azhek Ahriman and Nathan Lee have decided to keep the team in Kansas City going forward, a move that has generated a lot of excitement in the Kansas City area. With a renewed energy from the fan base and a dedicated front office, the Coyotes are beginning to believe the miracle finish is within reach. The team finishes with a schedule against Norfolk, Portland, Norfolk, and Palm Beach. They have played Norfolk closely twice and came away with a win in one of the two games. Palm Beach seemed to be on a tear but just lost their star player, Steve Fuller, to a suspension resulting from a positive performance enhancing drug test. Without Fuller, a win against the Solar Bears might just be within reach. That leaves the Portland Pythons, currently the first place team in the DSFL's East division. The Coyotes beat the team early in the season when excitement was high but have struggled to keep things close in more recent games. Perhaps with a rejuvenated optimism the Coyotes can once again compete. In reality the Coyotes need only to win one of the two games against Portland and Palm Beach if they can sweep Norfolk. The Seawolves' other two games come against Tijuana and Portland - both quality teams. Even if the Coyotes look like the same team we've seen all season over the final four weeks, they're staying in Kansas City. So if not this season, there's always next year.
Jan 14 2018, 05:22 PM
This might be another dense analysis but here goes nothing. The idea I set out with was to adjust each player's rushing yards for the season based on their strength of schedule.

To start, I gathered a game-by-game data set of players, attempts, yardage, and opponents. I also copied the season long rushing stats for each player in the league and added a calculation for yards per game. To determine the strength of the opponent's rush defense in that game, the idea was to divide the player's yardage for a given game by his season yards per game. This produces a percentage of the player's yardage that his opponent allowed in that game. So if a player normally rushes for 50 yards per game but ran for 75 in a given game, the "YPG Factor" attributed to his opponent would be 1.5.

So now I have a YPG Factor for each player in each game, but I need to summarize that number for all players against each team. So instead of looking at things on the level of an individual player in an individual game, I want to look at what each defense allows relative to the league average yardage. Using Yellowknife as an example - on average they allow 60.5 combined yards per game to any rushers they face. The league average yards per game allowed is 77.75 yards per game. So to get Yellowknife's yardage factor, all that needs to be done is dividing 60.5 by 77.75 which outputs 0.772. This is expressed as a formula below.

So, after applying this formula for all teams in the NSFL, we have the following table of yardage factors.

Again using Yellowknife as an example, their yardage factor is 0.772. This means that a running back who averages 80 yards per game should expect to rush for 62 (or 77.2% of 80) yards against the Wraiths. On the other hand, the same running back facing Las Vegas should expect to rush for 97 (or 121.5% of 80) yards.

Now I can apply a similar approach to get an adjusted total rushing yards based on the strength of defense on a player's schedule. This is done by averaging the yardage factor for teams he's faced (SOS) and dividing (because lower numbers indicate harder SOS and the idea is to compare runners on a similar scale) his season total yardage by that number. Below is the resulting table, including strength of schedule, and actual and adjusted yards.

Obviously there isn't a whole lot of difference between each player's actual and adjusted yardage. This is partly due to the fact that right now every team is playing sort of a round robin schedule, so no players have to had to play a team like Yellowknife multiple times or seen the benefit of playing a team like Las Vegas multiple times. I would expect this to be a little more insightful as the season goes on and it's something I hope to track every handful of weeks.

Dec 23 2017, 09:04 PM
The goal of this analysis was to uncover the NSFL's most valuable contracts. Before getting into anything, most valuable is defined here as creating the greatest surplus value. Surplus value over what? That's where the analysis comes in. My initial idea was to gather the following data points for each player: Position, Team, TPE, and average annual contract value (AAV) and regress the former three on AAV to create a sort of predicted contract value. I used the players and TPE totals from each team's roster subforum and got contract numbers from each team's budget thread. Only 6 teams had threads so that's the sample we'll be looking at. I encountered a substantial issue pretty early on, however. A considerable number of the league's highest TPE earners are getting paid near-minimum salaries. Here's what this looks like in a scatter plot.

The reasonable assumption would be that, if nothing else, TPE and AAV should have a reasonably strong correlation. Obviously they don't. This sort of throws the regression idea out the window and forced me to adjust and create my own predicted AAV. I figured a reasonable way to do this would be to tally the total TPE and contract values for each team and determine a weighted AAV based on the player's TPE as a percentage of his team's total. The formula is basically this:

Projected AAV = (PlayerTPE / TeamTPE) * TeamAAV

Here is a scatterplot of TPE (x-axis) and projected AAV (on the y-axis as AAV_Team)

Now there is a visible correlation between TPE and AAV. This, of course, can't be used in a regression because we know the formula used to explain all variance in the data, but it does provide a reference point for "value". I took the difference between the player's projected contract and actual contract to calculate surplus value generated by that contract for that player's team. Here is a table of the 9 players who generated $2 million or more in surplus value for their team.

There are some pretty obvious limitations here. For one, it seems as if GM's can take a max of $1M and they tend to have fairly high TPE players, which means they'll tend to have the greatest surplus value. It also disregards position entirely. This could be projected with a similar method, but the formula would use position total TPE and total AAV rather than team totals. I didn't do that here, but maybe in a future analysis. It also does not give any consideration to rookie contracts generating future surplus value as their players improve, nor does it consider contract length (outside of the denominator for AAV). Hopefully this is at least a little bit interesting. If players on teams not included here have any interest in seeing how they stack up I would be happy to upload my data into a google doc that people can edit as they see fit, though it would require all of your team's contract and TPE data. I've also included the full table of surplus values below.

Side note: I'm not 100% sure if there's a limit to tasks you can do in a week. I already did a media a few days ago so if that interferes with anything just ignore this until the next grading period.

Dec 20 2017, 05:55 PM
MANASSAS -- Who is Poopyface Tomatonose? This is the question that very few, if any, NSFL and DSFL fans are asking themselves leading into tonight's DSFL Draft. Yet here we are, ready to answer that very question. The question you should probably start with when profiling someone with a name like that is "What the hell were your parents thinking"? It should come as little surprise that the answer to that question is that they weren't. In fact, his parents actually sold off the right to name their child to the highest bidder. At the time of Tomatonose's birth, FOX was preparing to air the highly controversial animated series Handi-Quacks. In an attempted a viral marketing ploy the network purchased the rights to name the child and named him after one of the shows main characters. Unfortunately for Poopyface Tomatonose, FOX did not have to foresight to realize that a cartoon about a trio of handicapped ducks would fail miserably. Although Tomatonose was just a few months old by the time the show tanked, his parents were contractually obligated to keep their child's outrageous name until he became a legal adult if they wanted to continue receiving the checks they made this decision for in the first place.

For the first year of his life, Poopyface Tomatonose was a national sensation. As is often the case with child stars, however, the world quickly moved onto the next fleeting story. By the time Tomatonose started kindergarten, the story of his name was all but forgotten. This, of course, meant that a child whose actual, legal name was Poopyface Tomatonose had to go out into the real world. As most would expect, he was teased relentlessly. He got it far worse than most kids as his peers couldn't take the easy way out and call him a "poop face" as that was, you know, basically his name. Instead they got creative to really inflict the pain and called him names that an adult Tomatonose still cannot bring himself to speak. Poopyface Tomatonose tried all sorts of tactics to own his name growing up, at times taping an actual tomato to his face or covering his face with brown paint (though that one drew ire for different reasons). Nothing worked. He was stuck with this name and all of the baggage that came with it. This was all ultimately a blessing in disguise, as we wouldn't be talking about this utterly insane story if there weren't some silver lining at the end of it.

As our subject grew older he became more adept at brushing off the insults hurled his way. This development was further aided by Tomatonose's alarming physical growth. By the time he started high school he was a towering 6'2" and 200 pounds. As ridiculous as that sounds, I must remind you once again that we are talking about someone named Poopyface. Nothing about this story is normal. Tomatonose caught the eye of his high school's football coach (not in that way) who thought the freshman would make an excellent tight end. He excelled on the football field and wasted no time making himself a new favorite among his peers. He became well known in the state of Virginia for his signature touchdown celebration: pretending to wipe his ass with the football, then rubbing it on his helmet. His new attempt to own his outrageous name was ultimately his undoing. Things came full circle and Tomatonose was once again a national sensation. Fans came to games with fake tomato-noses and brown face paint (it's worth mentioning now that all of this occurred in Virginia, so unfortunately nobody really said anything). Back in the public circle, all of Tomatonose's past problems had come back to haunt him and were more magnified than ever before. He shrunk from the national spotlight, quit football, and enrolled in a small private school for his senior year. Once again forgotten, Tomatonose graduated and enrolled in the University of Virginia.

Over that summer, Poopyface Tomatonose was set to turn eighteen and would finally be eligible to rid himself of the name and disappear into the real world as if none of this story ever happened. We know that Poopyface Tomatonose is very much still his name, so what changed? It was an unexpected phone call from the University of Virginia's head football coach that sent Tomatonose down his current path. He worked tirelessly to get Tomatonose to walk onto the Cavaliers' football team, promising him his past and his name would always haunt him unless he could face them head on. Something about this resonated with Tomatonose and he tried out for the team. His tryout was met with a condition, however. He had to keep his name. Tomatonose was apparently desperate enough to play football again as he relented and made the team. Once again the media started following the improbable story of Poopyface Tomatonose and once again he felt the urge to shrink from the spotlight. This time he was better prepared, however. With the help of hims teammates and coaches he didn't feed into the attention and was able to block out the noise. There was nothing to cover but the story of a Virginia football tight end, and the media coverage consequently faded as there are few things less interesting in all of the world. Tomatonose excelled throughout the rest of his college career, piling up receiving records as a Virginia Cavalier.

In spite of his triumphant story, he is not without his flaws as a football player. Now preparing for the DSFL draft, Tomatonose is facing questions from critics about his blocking. They say he is too one-dimensional to play tight end and too slow to transition to a receiver. Teams are also questioning his commitment. With the spotlight likely to return when his name is called on draft night, will he once again give up football and recede into the shadows? Only time will tell. What we know after taking a dive into the past of Poopyface Tomatonose is that he is one of the more intriguing prospects in the upcoming draft class and one who's future we look forward to following.

Dec 17 2017, 08:55 AM
For personal reference:

Username: speculadora
First Name: Poopyface
Last Name: Tomatonose
Position: TE
College: UVA
Birthdate: 1/1/1997
Handedness: Left
Recruited By: PikawaNaNiboo
Jersey Number: 84
Height (ft.): 6'7"
Weight (lbs.): 250lbs
Birthplace: Manassas, VA
Player Archetype: Vertical Threat

Player Attributes

TPE Available: 0
(MAX: 80) - Strength: 61
(MAX: 85) - Agility: 61
(MAX: 25) - Arm: 1
(MAX: 75) - Intelligence: 45
(MAX: 25) - Throwing Accuracy: 1
(MAX: 50) - Tackling: 25
(MAX: 90) - Speed: 75
(MAX: 80) - Hands: 70
(MAX: 50) - Pass Blocking: 25
(MAX: 50) - Run Blocking: 25
(MAX: 100) - Endurance: 65
(MAX: 25) - Kick Power: 1
(MAX: 25) - Kick Accuracy: 1

0-50 - costs 1 TPE to go up 1 point
51-70 - costs 2 TPE to go up 1 point
71-80 - costs 5 TPE to go up 1 point
81-90 - costs 10 TPE to go up 1 point
91-100 - costs 15 TPE to go up 1 point
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