Posted: Nov 16 2017, 09:39 PM
Here is the week 5 and 6 review of the Portland Pythons. Another loss to a familiar foe and a close win against the league's best pass defense.
Week 5 - vs. CHI
Another pretty huge loss to the Chicago Blues. How does this keep happening? So far, Portland has had great game stats that should dictate wins against most teams... except Chicago. Against CHI time of possession, third down efficiency, and turnovers are all above season average. So for as much praise San Antonio gets for their defense, CHI has bamboozled the preseason favourite for best offense. The CHI defense kept POR under 200 yards passing and to just over 50 yards rushing (on 23 carries resulting in a 2.3 yards per carry average). Just a horrible game offensively, not to mention only managing 5 first downs on 20 3rd down chances.
Defensively, it wasn't much better for the POR. CHI went off for 4 touchdowns through the air. They managed to pick up over 7 yards per pass. That meant CHI was able to put together drives that could go all the way down the field, aand very quickly as well. While CHI had the same 3rd down conversion rate as POR, the larger average play and +4 minutes of time of possession had the game stats stacked in CHI's favour. Verdict: Sim gods got it right. Completely dominant in every aspect of the game.
So once again, the POR point differential in the standings takes another huge hit and some people around the league have started to take notice. How is a 3-2 team leading the West, but has a -40 point differential? Again, 2 huge losses to CHI and 3 close wins against the rest of the league makes it look much worse than it actually is. And even in these soul crushing losses to CHI, the defensive and offensive stats show that POR is playing okay even on the off days.
Week 6 - @KCC
A game on the road against a team we haven't seen since preseason which just so happens to be the most feared pass defense isn't exactly the team the Pythons wanted to see right after a blowout loss. With most of the focus being on Andre Bly Jr. vs. John Wachter, how could the Pythons offense adapt to run through a different receiver? Well let's dive into some stats here.
The stats, unfortunately for the Pythons, seem to show that KCC got robbed. Passing yards, yards per pass, rushing yards, completion percentage, and time of possession were all in KCC's favour and all those factors all point towards KCC being able to drive the ball down the field to put points up. Even my favourite stat, 3rd down efficiency was in the same ball park (21.4%) as POR's (25%). The sim just didn't result in KCC being able to put up any points aside from a first quarter field goal. The one stat that may have swung the favour to POR's side is penalties. Only 2 of the 8 penalties KCC took were offensive penalties, so the Coyotes handed the struggling POR offense free yardage 6 times throughout the game. This also kept the KCC offense off the field late in the game as they were trying to stage their comeback.
But what about Bly Jr. vs Wachter? Did KCC game planning work to shut down Wachter? I feel that's what most GMs are game planning these days. In the previous 5 games Wachter was averaging 6.8 catches and 79.8 yards per contest. The KCC-POR game, Wachter wound up with 7 catches for 70 yards. So while KCC's defense managed to contain the POR offense, they did very little to slow down Wachter.
The game's Verdict: I think the sim got the W-L result wrong, but penalties and a couple turnovers did the Coyotes in this time.
Weeks 7 and 8 coming soon.
This post has been edited by jparks98: Nov 18 2017, 11:20 AM
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