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 *The Statistics of Interceptions
PaytonM34
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 09:47 AM
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As a new rookie playing as a middle linebacker, I have been pondering the most useful stat when it comes to creating interceptions. The three main stats I have chosen to examine, are Intelligence, Speed, and Hands. I have recorded every player in the S4 NSFL regular season who registered an interception, and their stats. Below is the raw data of Interceptions, Intelligence stat, Speed stat, and Hands stat.

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Then, I graphed each stat with their relation to how many interceptions that player had gotten in the season.

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As you can see, there is a slight positive correlation to each stat and how many INTs they had, although hands had the highest correlation along with the most accurate trendline. Behind the data, this could mean that a player will level up their hands stat after they had already trained up their other two main stats.

Looking at the two players who had 100 speed in the season, one recorded 8 INTs, and the other only 2 INTs. Looking at the data, their hands stat is relatively the same, but the player with 8 INTs (Canton) , has 7 more levels in Intelligence.

Looking specifically at the 9 players with 95+ speed, there were 7 players who recorded more than 4 INTs , 1 who had recorded 2 INTs, and 1 who recorded 1 INT. Comparing the Intelligence and Hands stats among these 9 players, surprisingly the players who recorded 1 and 2 INTs beat out most of the players who recorded 4+ INTs. This could be due to their role in the defense, or just unlucky simulations.

Looking at the data, which stat for a defensive player do you think is the most important when looking for INT's?


GRADED

This post has been edited by bovovovo: Jan 18 2018, 09:28 AM

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Bzerkap
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 10:01 AM
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Unfortunately there's too many factors to really get a good prediction on when an interception is likely.

Just stats:
QB: Arm, Intelligence, Accuracy
WR: Speed, Agility, Hands, Intelligence (Maybe)
DB: Speed, Agility, Hands, Intelligence

Then situational effects:
QB getting pressured?
Good play call?
Can the QB buy time with his feet?

I really like the analysis though and it's something I am more interested in doing if I ever find the time.

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kckolbe
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 10:03 AM
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Where did you get attributes from? Mine are criminally low.

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Bzerkap
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 10:04 AM
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QUOTE (kckolbe @ Dec 26 2017, 10:03 AM)
Where did you get attributes from?  Mine are criminally low.

lol damn dude. Good thing we traded you

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PaytonM34
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 10:09 AM
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QUOTE (kckolbe @ Dec 26 2017, 05:03 PM)
Where did you get attributes from?  Mine are criminally low.

Damn, I put your tackling stat where your speed should've been... My bad ๐Ÿ˜‚

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automatic
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 10:09 AM
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QUOTE (PaytonM34 @ Dec 26 2017, 09:47 AM)

Looking at the data, which stat for a defensive player do you think is the most important when looking for INT's?


Isn't the whole point of statistical analysis avoiding a judgement call on attribute is more important?

I realize you made some charts and want to get paid for it, but if we don't know how picks are made i bet we need to do a deeper dive into the data. Also, the sim is highly randomized, with a large result range which could come up on any given play.

Maybe do a follow up using data sets of secondaries vs Pierno against secondaries facing Boss? Narrow the scope a bit. My suspicions say picks are as much the QB's fault as the good play of the secondary.

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kckolbe
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE (PaytonM34 @ Dec 26 2017, 10:09 AM)

Damn, I put your tackling stat where your speed should've been... My bad ๐Ÿ˜‚

No worries. What about intelligence?

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PaytonM34
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 11:15 AM
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QUOTE (automatic @ Dec 26 2017, 05:09 PM)


Isn't the whole point of statistical analysis avoiding a judgement call on attribute is more important? 

I realize you made some charts and want to get paid for it, but if we don't know how picks are made i bet we need to do a deeper dive into the data.  Also, the sim is highly randomized, with a large result range which could come up on any given play. 

Maybe do a follow up using data sets of secondaries vs Pierno against secondaries facing Boss? Narrow the scope a bit.  My suspicions say picks are as much the QB's fault as the good play of the secondary.


I agree, there are deeper stats to dive into when trying to see why an interception happens in the simulation, the purpose of this article was to basically just scratch the surface on what's actually going on, to see if there was any one stat more important than the other, and maybe create a discussion about it.

Definitely the next step should be looking at QB accuracy vs defensive stats, but I think that will be another project for a different day

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PaytonM34
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 11:19 AM
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QUOTE (kckolbe @ Dec 26 2017, 06:11 PM)

No worries.  What about intelligence?

Honestly, looking back at the data for your stats, I think I may have completely put in a different players stats for you... Your INT is 80, speed 91, hands 64... Idk what the hell happened there.. think I'm still a little sauced from yesterday

This post has been edited by PaytonM34: Dec 26 2017, 11:21 AM

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37thchamber
 Posted: Dec 26 2017, 12:08 PM
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QUOTE (automatic @ Dec 26 2017, 06:09 PM)

My suspicions say picks are as much the QB's fault as the good play of the secondary.

My own (limited) tests suggest its more on the QB and/or offensive line.

We messed around with playing guys out of position for the hell of it and we saw outrageous INT numbers. When I played multiple seasons in the sim I couldn't recreate those numbers though.

Haven't got round to more in-depth testing yet.

This post has been edited by 37thchamber: Dec 26 2017, 12:09 PM

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